On Film and Diversity


This is a response to some points raised by Film Critic Hulk in his piece “What We Talk About When We Talk About Female Filmmaking.”

He suggests that some of the standards by which we measure film are biased against women and films against women, using the cinematography of Lady Bird as an example.

But yeah, the real thing about Blade Runner 2049‘s cinematography is that it is tangibly impressive. But equally impressive in terms of cinematography, editing, and construction?

Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird.

It just happens to err on the side of naturalism, which makes sense given that it’s a realistic coming of age story about a high school senior trying to find her place in the world. Thus, it is trying to echo that realism and make us feel a sense of intimacy with it. It needs to feel like life, not a “movie movie.” But there is no less craft in achieving that. Believe me, naturalism is insanely difficult to achieve.

I like the examples of Lady Bird’s impressive cinematography. Interestingly enough, cinematographer Sam Levy is so unknown that he doesn’t even have a wikipedia page. However, I’m not sure the lack of appreciation for Lady Bird is so gendered. Greta Gerwig was nominated for Best Director and Best Original Screenplay. Sam Levy (not nominated/ rarely discussed) is a middle-aged white guy. I was wondering if the lack of nomination has something to do with the film not being a period/ sci-fi piece, although there have been recent nominations for Moonlight, La La Land, Birdman, and Nebraska, so it can’t just be that. A lot of it probably is because, as he pointed out, it is harder to note craft that is natural and subtle. However, I’m not sure if the female subject matter is the difference, since recent years have consistently seen cinematography nominations for films with female leads (Black Swan, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Anna Karenina, Gravity, Ida, Carol, Arrival, La La Land, Mudbound, The Shape of Water.) It’s not 50/50, but in an industry where it’s a gain for 29 percent of the top 100 films to have female leads, it is quite representative

He considers the critical backlash to A Wrinkle in Time as part of a larger segment of criticism against director Ava Duvernay.

I have not seen Ava Duvernay’s Wrinkle In Time yet, but it’s one of my favorite children’s books (and comic, if you’ve never read Hope Larson’s adaptation) and I plan to see it soon. But I actually think the following argument works better if I haven’t seen it and can just make some observations about the dialogue surrounding the film. Why is that?

Because there’s a lot of white film bros who hate Ava Duvernay.

Did you know this? Boy howdy do they hate on Ava. And they won’t stop popping up in my damn feed (and always creating new accounts! Which is always a sign of being a well-balanced individual) to make “logical” points about how everyone’s just treating her nice because we surely must be afraid of backlash! And by not tearing her apart and by “pulling punches,” we must be doing this because we’re afraid to upset the critical status quo and call the movie bad, etc… I’m not kidding.

I think he exaggerates the significance of people who were biased against Ava Duvernay. They weren’t able to have discernible impact on the critical acclaim of Selma or 13th, so why would it be different now? The biggest name among critics who hasn’t cared for her work is Kyle Smith, and it would be weird for him to suddenly be an influencer now. Film Critiic Hulk notes the significance of subject matter as part of the appeal of a film, but it could be that this is part of the poor response to A Wrinkle in Time. The key thing with subject matter is how people tell a story. The difference between Munich (Best Picture nominee) and 7 days in Entebbe (22% on Rotten Tomatoes) probably comes down to execution.

Finally, he expresses a preference for filmmakers who are truly representative, suggesting the problem is with the film industry.

It is so much more difficult for those who don’t fit the white dude movie lover mold. It’s downright systematic. You have to watch as female filmmakers from your classes slowly get railroaded into being producers, editors, and working in public relations instead or storytellers, all because “thats where they fit.” Just as you have no idea what it’s like to be a minority and get constantly used as a prop of collaboration and not get to be the engine of it. So you have to understand that something that has been so hard for you, has actually been 1000% harder for someone else. And sure, you can be sensitive to that idea all your want. You can say it’s unjust. You can say you want more female and minority filmmakers. But when you put forth the perfectly-sane and not -radical idea that “50% of studio films should be directed by women and 40% should be directed by minorities,” people lose their god damn minds.

The expectation of getting filmmakers who represent demographics perfectly seems unrealistic. Is there any profession that accurately represents the demographics of the country? There would be the initial factor that most people already in the industry are going to keep their jobs, so even if the new directors, cinematographers, sound mixers, etc. represent demographics perfectly, those who came in during earlier eras are going to stick around, skewing statistics for decades to come.

There are probably some institutional fixes if qualified women/ minorities are passed over for equally or less qualified white men, but some of the problem is going to be that white guys are more likely to get the jobs that lead to being in a position to get money to make films, so there would have to be reforms on the lower level. Even if there’s a fix in one area (American film production) the pipeline involves other areas. Looking at recent directors of Best Picture nominees, Jordan Peele came from television. Alfonso Cuaron and Guillermo del Toro came from the television industry of Mexico. Morten Tyldum came from the Norwegian television industry. Lenny Abrahamson came from advertising. Martin McDonagh was an Irish playwright. Kenneth Lonergan’s first major work was an off-Broadway play. Paul Thomas Anderson used his college savings to make a short film. Even with reforms in all these industries, it doesn’t offset other potential problems that lead to less women and less people in color in a position to get the job that results in them getting the budgets to make major films.


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Why My Mom Hates International Women’s Day


My mom is rather pissed off about the celebration of International Women’s Day.

She thinks the idea to celebrate Women’s Day is good, but there’s a history behind March 8 that makes it particularly awkward for her as someone who grew up in Estonia when it was occupied by the Soviet Union.

March 8 was proposed a long time ago by communists Rosa Luxemburg, Clara Zetkin, and Alexandra Kollontai, largely to honor women the role of the working women of St. Petersburg in the revolution. As noted on marxists.org

But this is not a special day for women alone. The 8th of March is a historic and memorable day for the workers and peasants, for all the Russian workers and for the workers of the whole world. In 1917, on this day, the great February revolution broke out.[2] It was the working women of Petersburg who began this revolution; it was they who first decided to raise the banner of opposition to the Tsar and his associates. And so, working women’s day is a double celebration for us.

But if this is a general holiday for all the proletariat, why do we call it “Women’s Day”? Why then do we hold special celebrations and meetings aimed above all at the women workers and the peasant women? Doesn’t this jeopardize the unity and solidarity of the working class? To answer these questions, we have to look back and see how Women’s Day came about and for what purpose it was organized.

Lenin was the first world leader to declare this as a national holiday in 1922 as International Working Women’s Day (there weren’t women who didn’t work in the Soviet Union). In Soviet occupied countries, it was not taken seriously, and much parodied.  It was also seen as a substitute for Mother’s Day.

Celebrating women’s day is a fine idea, but it should be done on a day that was not selected by communists. It won’t necessarily be an easy process, since there are a lot of considerations. It would make a lot of sense to honor a celebrated woman, although most political and religious figures would lack universal appeal. Hildegard of Bingen is honored mainly by Catholics, and honoring a feminist who was important to one country or area of the world (IE- Mary Wollstonecraft, Elizabeth Cady Stanton) is fraught. Murasaki Shikibu is considered one of the most important writers ever, but we have no idea what day she was born on. Marie Curie’s November 7 birthday might be too close to Veteran’s Day in the US.

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Movies Watched in 2018 Part 1


I’m trying again this year to keep track of the movies I watch with the annual goal of ten movies per decade (counting the silent era up until 1929 as one full decade. Since I might’ve overlooked films from the early 2010s, I’m also counting from 2016, 2017 and 2018 in different categories, with additional goals of ten films from 2016, seventeen from 2017, and eighteen from 2018. I set up a sub-goal for this entry of ten movies from 2017 (thanks to all the prestige pictures in films this time of year), five movies with the same writer (Aaron Sorkin), five films in the same language (French), five films with the same actress (Julianne Moore) and five films with the same actor (Tom Cruise). I didn’t end up touching French film.

When I describe a movie as new, it just means I haven’t seen it before.

Movie #1/ New Movie #2/  1970s Movie #1: Shampoo
I’ve had a bit of a The Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon with this film, hearing about it in different ways: as a breakout for star Warren Beatty, as a comedy set during a presidential election, as a standout for director Hal Ashby, as a showcase for an Oscar winning performance by Lee Grant, and as the debut of Carrie Fisher. It’s a solid kinda dry comedy about a lunk who is irresistible to women, elevated by a hell of a supporting cast (Goldie Hawn and Julie Christie are two of his girlfriends; Jack Warden got an Oscar nomination as a philandering cuckold) which initially meanders around, but does have some payoff at the end as he faces a reckoning.

Movie #2/ New Movie #2/ 2017 Movie #1: I, Tonya
It’s a darkly funny film that looks at a typical triumphant sports biopic that gets derailed just as the flawed heroine is about to do her comeback. Margot Robbie and Alison Janney are sensational as the daughter and mother. I do like how the film acknowledges the unreliable narrators, and the media criticism. There are some striking omissions (a supporting character gets a job as a bodyguard for Harding in between scenes, she has four older half-siblings who are never mentioned, encounters with Nancy Kerrigan are referred to but never shown, etc.)

Movie #3/ New Movie #3/ 2017 Movie #2/ Aaron Sorkin Movie #1: Molly’s Game
It’s not a shocker that Sorkin’s directorial debut has a very witty script, as he tells a labyrinthine tale of a woman’s rise and fall in an unconventional business, building effectively to realizations about her past that have affected her behavior going forward. Strong central performance by Jessica Chastain.

Movie #4/ New Movie #4/ 1980s Movie #1: Working Girl
Decent comedy about a secretary who pretends to be someone at the top of her company, even if some of the Oscar nominations are undeserved (Joan Cusack is a good example of someone who is good in a film, but definitely not one of the five best of the year.)


Movie #5/ New Movie #5/ 1970s Movie #2: A Touch of Class
This movie has the second of Glenda Jackson’s Academy Award winning performances (out of four nominations) and I hadn’t seen any of her work, which shows how much of a blind spot this cinematic period is for me (English film during the New Hollywood era.) It’s a decent comedy about two likable people who find an affair isn’t as simple as they assumed; first because of various complications, handled in hilarious fashion, and then because of what it means. Ebert suggested the ending wasn’t earned, but it was definitely set-up.

Movie #6/ 2010s Movie #1: Captain America: The Winter Soldier
The first Captain America sequel might just be the best Marvel Cinematic Universe film and the top competitors are the others in the series. It’s a compelling spy drama, elevating supporting characters from earlier films, with new additions who have some tremendous staying power. Looking at it again, I really like the twists and turns with Robert Redford’s character (the casting being a nod to 1970s thrillers, which showcases the MCU’s strength) and the plan of the bad guys, which is a scarily logical way to rule the world.

Movie #7/ New Movie #6/ 2017 Movie #3/ Julianne Moore Movie #1: Kingsmen- The Golden Circle
This Kingmen sequel goes on a bit long, and kills off characters in ways that aren’t quite earned, although I do like the set-up to the Statesmen and the return of Colin Firth’s Galahad, which makes for some decent complications. It’s a step down from the original, but still fun.


Movie #8/ 2000s Movie #1/ Julianne Moore Movie #2: Children of Men
This is a sci-fi film that has held up well, with excellent worldbuilding and cinematography, establishing a hopeless new world and then introducing something to shake it up. The two long takes are spectacular, and the script has some nice surprises.

Movie #9/ New Movie #7/ 2017 Movie #4: The Greatest Showman
It’s a flawed but decent musical. The songs are catchy, and often quite moving (the opening montage is a highlight, and “Never Enough” is powerful on several levels). It does sometimes feel like several different films put together (Hugh Jackman’s ambitious showman realizing the importance of family, an interracial love story pre-Civil War, “freaks” coming to acceptance) sometimes in a messy manner.

Movie #10/ 2010s Movie #2: Star Wars- The Force Awakens
Watching it again, I get a sense of just how well it combined excellent new characters with a very traditional Star Wars story, simultaneously showing what’s great about the series, and saying something new about the legacy, especially with the villain being a Darth Vader fanboy.

Movie #11/ New Movie #8/ 2017 Movie #5: Coco
In some ways, it hits familiar beats from Pixar movies, but it develops the Day of the Dead visual schema quite well, and builds very effectively to some big revelations about the young lead’s family. A particular standout is how they’re able to use several variations of the central song “Remember Me” with a reprise so moving it makes the first time seem like a parody in comparison.

Shape of Water

Movie #12/ New Movie #9/ 2017 Movie #6: The Shape of Water
Unconventional matter for a film with so many Academy Award nominations. It tells the fairy tale story pretty well, with some excellent period touches and key moments that are quite successful. It knows what it’s about and gets the message across quite well. The cast is quite good, especially Hawkins imbuing her mute lead with personality, Richard Jenkins’ frustrated artist realizing what matters, and Doug Jones providing a take on The Creature from the Black Lagoon as romantic lead.

Movie #13/ 1990s Movie #1/ Aaron Sorkin Movie #2/ Tom Cruise Movie #1: A Few Good Men
A smart legal drama that made Sorkin’s name. Cruise is perfect as a cocky young lawyer forced to take some risks, while Nicholson’s corrupt general is an imposing antagonist whose perspective and actions are given their due. The events leading to the cover-up are believable, as are the actions everyone takes after.

Movie #14/ 1990s Movie #2/ New Movie #10: Cruel Intentions
I largely ended up watching it due to a mash-up of a key scene, and a Trump speech. The world of the film is a moral vacuum, and almost irredeemably so. There’s wit, but not enough to make up for the ridiculousness.

Movie #15/ 2010s Movie #3/ Aaron Sorkin Movie #3: Moneyball
It’s a film about sports that might not be as interesting to people who care about sports, as a General Manager and a statistician work on getting a baseball team of undervalued players. It’s a smart clash between tradition and new methods.

Movie #16/ 2010s Movie #4 / Julianne Moore Film #3: Crazy Stupid Love
It’s interesting to watch a film that is essentially a spec for a hit show (This is Us.) It’s a witty script with an excellent cast that takes some interesting twists, especially in the second act finale when all the threads come together.

Movie #17/ 2010s Movie #5/ Aaron Sorkin Movie #4: The Social Network
This might remain my favorite movie of the current decade, perhaps because it hits so many sweet spots (young geniuses change the world under everyone else’s radar and then a lot of it falls apart.) The performances by Eisenberg, Timberlake, Garfield and Hammer as the men fighting for early Facebook, with different motives and shifting allegiances, are excellent. The script is well-structured and memorable; Trent Reznor’s score is brilliant. I’d be very eager to see a sequel dealing with its current Fake News crisis.


Movie #18/ New Movie #11/ 2010s Movie #6/ Estonian Movie #1: Tangerines/ To Kill a Man
A few years back when I saw early reports about this film, I asked my mom (who is from Estonia) if she’s familiar with the actor Lembit Ulfsak. She got depressed, and asked if he had died. I said no; by all accounts, he had made his masterpiece. It’s probably the best anti-war film I’ve seen in the 21st Century, as an Estonian farmer in Georgia helps two soldiers from different sides of a conflict recover from the injuries, while also making sure they don’t kill one anothr.

Movie #19/ 2010s Movie #7/ Aaron Sorkin Movie #5: Steve Jobs
It’s a very interestingly structured film about Steve Jobs, and the people around him, built around three product launches, telling the story of a flawed genius, which doesn’t skimp in either category. We see the ways he unnecessarily alienates family and coworkers, and the big ideas: some of which may be wrong, and some of which have the potential to be world-changing. We see his volatilty. Excellent cast headed by Fassbender and Winslet.

Movie #20/ New Movie #12/ 2017 Movie #8/ Documentary #1: Get Me Roger Stone
The filmmakers had the good fortune to capture their subject at a fascinating time, just as Roger Stone’s buddy was running for President. It’s a decent look at the moral code and history of a political fixer who has been active in politics since the Nixon administration, and a story about behind the scenes maneuvering during the 2000 Reform Party nomination might make the best case I’ve seen for Donald Trump as someone who has been an underappreciated political figure until he ran for President.

Movie #21/ New Movie #13/ 2017 Movie #8: Baby Driver
The music is pretty awesome, so those Oscar nominations (sound editing, sound mixing) are well deserved. This Edgar Wright vehicle about an unconventional getaway driver has a witty script, great sense of design, and some fantastic car chases, taking some interesting turns on the ethos of the career criminals involved.


Movie #22/ 2017 Movie #9: Star Wars- The Last Jedi
Watching it again, I remain impressed at how well it works to give better adventures for some of the new cast introduced in Force Awakens (an underappreciated element in the success of this trilogy), while adding new characters who take some unpredictable turns, and providing Luke and Leia excellent character arcs. It makes some decisions that could piss off Star Wars fans, and I do understand that, even if I largely agree with those decisions, which result in some excellent twists that build nicely on what’s been established. It may also have the best visuals of any Star Wars film to date.

Movie #23/ New Movie #14/ 1980s Movie #2/  Tom Cruise Movie #2: Rain Man
The oddest thing about the film might be the things that would not apply to modern culture (educated characters with limited awareness of what autism means.) The road trip film features a satisfying transformation for Cruise’s Lamborghini dealer (nicely specific touch rather than making him a general car salesman), as he learns some family secrets (the highlight being his realization about an imaginary friend) and grows to appreciate a new brother. Hoffman gives a terrific performance as the autistic savant, as a man who can’t change to the same degree and can’t articulate what’s meaningful to him.

Movie #24/ New Movie #15/ 2010s Movie #8 / Julianne Moore Film #4: Game Change
This take on Palin’s stint as Republican Vice-Presidential nominee operated as a kind of disaster movie, where the disaster no one quite sees coming is her complete lack of policy understanding, as well as her failure to adapt to the campaign. It’s a decent film about political ideas, as well as the difficulties of the media environment, and the compromises that may be necessary, and the questions that will later be asked.

Movie #25/ New Movie #16/ 2017 Movie #10: Call Me By Your Name
It’s a tender beautifully shot film about a young man’s early love in an idyllic setting. It’s paced interestingly, taking time to get to the consummation. I’m sure there are some viewers (especially intellectual gay men who like Europe) for whom this film will speak as much as The Social Network (the other great Armie Hammer performance) spoke to me.

cruise magnolia

Movie #26/ New Movie #17/ 1990s Movie #3/ Tom Cruise Movie #3/ Julianne Moore Movie #5: Magnolia
It’s a well-made film about a variety of sad people in Los Angeles, interconnected in strange ways. I appreciate the storytelling, the way things keep getting propelled forward, and the crazed characters. There are some strange artistic choices, especially in the final deluge, and some of the stories do peter out a bit. But when it works (Cruise’s men’s rights activist giving a lecture twenty years early, Moore’s trophy wife falling apart) it’s really remarkable.

Movie #27/ 2000s Movie #2/ Tom Cruise Movie #4: Tropic Thunder
It’s a decent Hollywood satire, with a strong cast and a story that takes some interesting turns, while setting up the crucial misunderstanding pretty well. It’s a bit of an idiot plot, but that works because they’re idiots.

Movie #28/ New Movie #18/ 2018 Movie #1: Black Panther
Now this might be the best Marvel Cinematic Universe film ever, with the main competition being the Captain America trilogy. It may also be the biggest pop culture decades from now, as the defining example of Afrofuturism in film. Coogler and company give a sense of grappling with the subject matter for decades before adapting it in a way that introduces the concepts quite well, but also addresses some of the big questions about what’s suggested. The biggest flaw is that the lead might be the fourth most interesting person in the film, behind Michael B Jordan’s Kilmonger (easily one of the best comic book villains), and the main women who support T’Challa: Lupita Nyongo’o’s Nakia— Wakandan who has seen the outside world and wants to change it—and Letita Wright’s Shuri—combination of princess and mad scientist.

New World

Movie #29/ New Movie #19/ 2000s Movie #3/ Criterion Edition #1: The New World (Extended Edition)
This isn’t a shocker with Emmanuel Lubezki on cinematography, but this is a beautiful film. It’s probably my favorite of Malick’s, due to the beauty and the way that some of the ponderousness is earned, in a story about people who are changing world history. It captures the sense quite well of the story behind the myth, even if it ends up taking significant liberties as well. Excellent cast, with some unexpected turns.

Movie #30/ New Movie #20/ 2000s Movie #4/ Tom Cruise Movie #5: Collateral
Jamie Foxx’s best supporting actor nomination in category fraud, since he’s clearly the lead, although he is quite good as a cab driver keeping things bottled up who finds himself to keep up with Tom Cruise’s hitman.

Bonus Movie #1/ New Movie #11/ 2010s Movie #8A/ Documentary #1A/ Estonian Movie #1A: The Master Plan
I saw this documentary (a joint project by Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian arts councils) at an event, and it’s fascinating, but it’s less than an hour long, so I don’t want to count it. It looks at Russian propaganda efforts in the Baltics, with some rather scary examples (a Latvian elected official who is largely a shill for Russia on RT and other media outlets, BS organizations that are used to give credentials for Russian stooges to meet with elected officials and to opine in media appearances about what’s going on in the world.)

Best Movie of the Batch: The Social Network

With all the Oscarbait films, this list was heavily biased towards newer movies, especially when combined with the sub-challenges I picked for myself, it meant I had incentives to select actors and writers who have been productive recently.

I’m not sure the extent to which the films I saw in various categories are representaitve of anything, but 2017 was a decent year in film. Aaron Sorkin’s a hell of a writer who is pretty idea of tackling ideas and questions of morality and purpose, especially in a modern context. Tom Cruise is pretty good at playing assholes. Julianne Moore plays intense very well.

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Schumer and Tide Pods

I am really looking forward to one of the fact-checking sites writing about this one.

Schumer Tide Pod


Fact-check true:



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Tableaux from In The Crosswind

For a lesson for my Social Studies class, there’s a portion where the students are to perform tableaux: a group of models or motionless figures representing a scene from a story or from history.

There is a slight problem with providing context for them on what exactly a tableau is: the main examples of videos come from classrooms, where it’s not that exciting or groundbreaking.

I am fortunately aware of examples of tableaux with decent production values from the Estonian film In The Crosswind, which is a series of tableaux, and pulls off the effect beautifully.

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Oprah’s Pence


This is very premature speculation on a possible Oprah presidential bid. If she were to run for President, and were to win the Democratic vice-presidential nomination, who would be her ideal running mate? Who could do for her what Pence did for Trump?

Pence didn’t look like an ideal national leader, but he did several big things for Trump. He helped make inroads with the establishment, had conventional qualifications (congressional leader turned Governor), pleased much of the traditional base/ social conservatives, and added geographic diversity (midwesterner for the East Coast guy).

There are a few Democrats who might do similar stuff for Oprah, but her situation’s a bit different. She’s so associated with Chicago and the heartland (and grew up in the deep south) that a geographic match isn’t a problem. Her political views seem to be relatively close to Hillary and Obama, so she wouldn’t need a running mate with conventional views; it might actually make sense to go for someone in the Sanders camp.

She probably needs a running mate who’s a white guy, since otherwise it would be a ticket with two women or two racial minorities, so that’s another consideration.

She can go in several directions.

Someone with solid qualifications and establishment ties would be Andrew Cuomo, a Governor, as well as a former top prosecutor and Cabinet official.

Mark Warner might fit this bill as a Senator and former Governor.

If she wants to get progressives on her side, Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon was the only Senator to endorse Bernie Sanders, and has made Wall Street reform a key issue.

Someone who straddles the progressive and establishment camps would be Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who also brings with him connections to Washington where he has served as a member of Congress since 1993.

Someone who could connect establishment Democrats while bringing a progressive record and a sense of a new generation would be Gavin Newsom, newly elected as Governor (presumably) but with a background since George W Bush’s first term of prominent leftism.

It’s worth noting that when Mike Pence accepted the vice-presidential nomination he was damaged goods. His election to Governor of Indiana was much narrower than expected, and he had a national firestorm with an inability to effectively articulate and defend the Religious Freedom Restoration Act. His main competitors were Chris Christie, who had an approval rating in the teens as Governor of New Jersey, and former Speaker Newt Gingrich, who had his own issues. Many prominent Republicans, including John Kasich, Marco Rubio and Bob Corker had taken themselves out of consideration.

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Predictions for the 90th Academy Awards


With the Oscar nominations coming out soon, I’m going to make my educated guess on who is going to be happiest.

Best Picture

Last time I tried this, I bet on all the SAG Outstanding Performance By a Cast nominees making it. This time around, I’m going a bit smaller with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Get Out, and Lady Bird.  I’d add to that Dunkirk and The Post, the former of which was more notable for the directing, and the latter which came out too late in the year to make the SAG cut. I’d expect The Shape of Water and Call Me By Your Name will round it out, partly due to their likely success in other key categories. Coco seems like such a strong frontrunner in the animated category, that I could easily imagine it being the first choice of five percent of Oscar voters.

Update: I got 7/9 (or 9/10 if you factor that there wasn’t a tenth nominee.) Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour were both nominated. There might be a rule that films favored to win lead actor are almost always nominated for Best Picture. The most recent exception was Crazy Heart in 2009.

Best Actor

This seems to be a race to determine who gets to lose to Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour. The top runner-up seems to be Timothy Chalamet for Call Me By Your Name, but it’s relatively wide open after that. It may be the last chance to nominate Daniel Day-Lewis, and he gave an excellent, very specific performance. Daniel Kaluuya did get a SAG nomination for Get Out. Tom Hanks hasn’t been nominated since Castaway, and is in a major Best Picture contender playing a famous person who Jason Robards won an Oscar for portraying in All the President’s Men. James Franco had an effective transformation in The Disaster Artist, a film about a subject Oscar voters care about, what it’s like to be behind the scenes of a film, but my guess is that it gets ignored because of the sexual impropriety allegations.

Update: I got 4/5. I did predict that Franco would be snubbed, although I didn’t think Denzel Washington would be the one to do it. Tom Hanks has gotten oddly due for a nomination. If you had a guy who broke out in middle age, like Bryan Cranston, with Captain Phillips, Saving Mr. Banks, Bridge of Spies, Sully and The Post on his resume, he probably would have got nominated at least once. There’s no rush to do it with Hanks, since he’s altready won twice.

Shape of Water

Best Actress

This is a category with a clear frontrunner: Frances McDormand for Three Billboards in Billings, Montana, and equally clear runner-ups: Sally Hawkins for The Shape of Water (playing a woman with a disability), and Saoirise Ronan for Lady Bird. Meryl Streep gave a strong performance in The Post, which is getting a lot of buzz for being contemporary (and has a better chance of a Best Picture nomination than films that have gotten her nominations before, while also depicting a significant character arc.) Margot Robbie’s transformation in I, Tonya gets the final nod for uglying it up to play a famous person in a film that still fits her brand as actress.

Update: Called it.

Best Supporting Actor

This category seems to be a fight between Willem Defoe in The Florida Project, and Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing. On the SAG nominations, neither pick from Call Me By Your Name was nominated, suggesting they might split the vote, although my guess is Michael Stuhlbarg benefits from his other major performances, which further highlight his range, whole Armie Hammer loses out due to the splitting of the vote. I think Christopher Plummer will be nominated for All The Money in the World, given the publicity of his accomplishment, as well as the near-universal acclaim. The last spot goes to Richard Jenkins in The Shape of Water, for having big moments in a film everyone’s going to see for Actress/ Director.

Update: Got 4/5. Woody Harrelson got in over Stuhlbarg, an indication of the power of Three Billboards.


Best Supporting Actress

This is a fight between two character actresses of a certain age who have never been nominated before, and are playing difficult mothers, albeit to varying degrees: Alison Janney in I, Tonya and Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird. The loser will get to be credited as an Oscar nominee in subsequent appearances in prestige pictures, so there is that. Mary J. Blige has gotten buzz for Mudbound., and it represents a chance to avoid an Oscars so Black threepeat (that didn’t help Idris Elba in his Netflix film two years back.) Melissa Leo had a lot of buzz for Novitate but that seems to have died down. My guess is that the last spots go to Holly Hunter in The Big Sick, and Octavia Spencer in The Shape of Water, two women who have been won before, and been nominated multiple times.

Tiffany Haddish has gotten a boost, so she might be an upset..

Update: I did guess that Leo and Hong Chau would be shut out, but Lesley Manville got in with Phantom Thread‘s surprising coattails.

Best Director

The Shape of Water and Dunkirk represent well-regarded efforts by two acclaimed directors who haven’t been nominated before, but that’s likely to change for Christopher Nolan and Guilermino Del Toro. Steven Spielberg might just be the living Director, and benefits from a timely effort, but he seems to have been shut out everywhere; maybe the film gets a bit of a backlash for being too Oscarbait (a similar thing happened to Lincoln). Three Billboards’ Martin McDonagh is likely to get nominated, given the film’s status as one of the major frontrunners. My last guesses are two acclaimed debuts from actors: Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird and Jordan Peele’s Get Out. If I’m right, this will be a contest between people who have never been nominated before, which could also happen if Luca Guadagnino is nominated for Call Me by Your Name, or Sean Baker is nominated for The Florida Project.

Update: McDonagh was shut out, and previously nominated Paul Thomas Anderson took his place.


Best Original Screenplay

Greta Gerwig is a lock in the category for Lady Bird, as is Jordan Peele for Get Out, and Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards of Billings, Missouri. The Post is quite timely, and screenplay’s an easier category than Director, so my guess is Liz Hannah and Josh Singer get nominations. I expect the final spot to go to Emily V. Gordon, and Kumail Nanjiani for The Big Sick, a well-regarded comedy with an interesting story behind it. This year, it seems to be a tougher category than adapted screenplay, which isn’t always the case. It could reflect something about Hollywood, and a pent up desire for stories that speak to the current moment.

Update: The Post got shut out for Shape of Water.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Screenplay can be an easier category to be nominated for, since there can only be one per film, and it’s split into two groups. My guess is that we’ll see repeat nominations from earlier winners Aaron Sorkin for Molly’s Game, James Ivory for Call Me By Your Name, and Sofia Copolla for The Beguiled. Dee Rees and Virgil WilliamsMudbound tackles important issues of race and class, and an Anti-Netflix bias won’t mean as much in a category where over half the films are shut out. James Franco‘s The Disaster Artist is about a topic that speaks to Oscar voters.

Update: Very happy to be wrong on Logan not getting nominated.


Best Cinematography

Roger Deakins has gotten a lot of nominations, and is getting a bit of a boomlet for Blade Runner 2049Hoyte van Hoytema might just be the MVP of Dunkirk, keeping three intersecting storylines engaging and visually distinct. The Shape of Water has gotten a lot of credit for the visuals, including surprise classic Hollywood callbacks, so a nomination for Dan Laustsen seems likely. The visuals of Call Me By Your Name have gotten similar credit without depicting science fiction elements or war, so I could see a nomination for Sayombhu Mukdeeprom. Darkest Hour‘s Bruno Delbonnel has been nominated several times before. A potential upset would come from Ben Davis for Three Billboards, given the film’s wide support.

Update: Mudbound ended up nominated over Call Me By Your Name.

Best Foreign Language Film

This would be the category I’m least familiar with, so much of it comes down to looking at the short-list and figuring if the Academy is likely to nominate a film about magic dreaming that I haven’t heard of. Ruben Östlund’s The Square (Sweden) seems to have gotten the most buzz, with a star-making performance for Clace Bang, and interesting commentary on art. Faith Akin’s In The Fade (Germany) had an acclaimed performance by name-actress Diane Kruger, and deals with difficult topics (racial hatred, vengeance.) Sebastián Lelio’s A Fantastic Woman (Chile) deals with another timely topic (the struggles of a trans woman.) Samuel Maoz’s Foxtrot (Israel) tackles a difficult topic in a way that is safe for anyone critical of Israel’s handling of Palestine to vote for. Andrey Zvyagintsev’s Loveless (Russia) comes for a director who has been nominated in the category before, and has won major awards, including the Cannes jury prize.

Update: One of my weaker categories with 3/5, and this was after the list was narrowed to nine.

Those are my predictions. My goal is to beat Variety, although I’ll be very happy if Logan ends up nominated for adapted screenplay and I end up being wrong on that one.

Update: We were tied on Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress. They correctly predicted all Best Supporting Actor choices, although I did better with Best Supporting Actress. 


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