The President Elected in 2016 will probably not be…


Yesterday, Taegan Goddard gave three reasons Marco Rubio is unlikely to be the Republican party’s presidential nominee. He’s probably right. As is anyone who makes a similar case against any other potential candidate. Christopher Bedford of the Daily Caller had a piece on why Chris Christie won’t be the Republican presidential nominee in 2016.

In what appears to be a crowded primary, there’s no one nominee with even a 50/50 chance of being the nominee.

Christie’s fat, and said nice things about Obama.
Paul Ryan was the #2 on a losing ticket.
Jeb Bush has the last name, and he’s been out of office since 2006.
Marco Rubio, Rob Portman and Kelly Ayotte are senators in a party that prefers executives, and they have to run for reelection in 2016.
Bobby Jindal may have to distinguish himself from the two more prominent socially conservative Catholic wonks born in 1970-1971.
Rand Paul was a doctor in 2009. And his dad resigned from the Republican party when Reagan was President.
And you can fins disqualifying factors against any other potential candidates.

clinton-rubioSo you could write articles about how any one politician is unlikely to be chosen. And you’ll probably be right. But someone’s going to be the nominee.

The Democratic primary is a bit simpler, in that there’s an overwhelming favorite, if Hillary Clinton chooses to run. Although, it is also a party where underdogs do well in primaries. But even the Democratic nominee will have to win the General election. So even if you think someone has a seventy percent chance of being a party’s nominee, and then a seventy percent chance of winning the general election, they have a less than even chance of being the next President.

About Thomas Mets

I’m a comic book fan, wannabe writer, politics buff and New Yorker. I don’t actually follow baseball. In the Estonian language, “Mets” simply means forest, or lousy sports team. You can email me at
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