This seems to be my last chance to make some predictions for what’s going to get Academy Award nominations. I’ll just use mgk’s template. I’m posting this at the last possible minute, so most people who read it are going to find out how wrong I was after learning of the nominations.
BEST DIRECTOR: As it’s limited to five, this is probably more prestigious than the nomination for Best Picture. It’s a safe bet that every film nominated for Best Director will also get the Best Picture nom. The shoo-ins are Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist, Martin Scorcese for Hugo and Alexander Payne for The Descendants. It’s a weak year and Woody Allen‘s been getting a lot of kudos for Midnight in Paris, so that also gets a nomination. The Help seems to have been a crowdpleaser, and will probably get the most acting nominations, so Tate Taylor rounds out the list.
RESULTS: I was wrong about Tate Taylor getting nominated. I’m kinda surprised about Malick’s nomination, as it means Tree of Life would have gotten some major kudos even if it weren’t for the increase in Best Picture nominations. Predicted 4/5.
BEST PICTURE: Because the Directors are nominated, The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo and Midnight in Paris get nominated. The Tree of Life was weird enough that it will be the first choice of at least five percent of the voters. From what I’ve heard, the same can be said of Drive. And there’s been a push for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, one of the best received blockbusters of the year. I think it’ll be nominated to reward the series, which had made a lot of money and gotten great reviews, a combination that hasn’t been successful with other adaptations of young adult series. My general perception is that Moneyball, War Horse, Ides of March and Tinker Taylor Soldier Spy just aren’t that beloved, so none will get the nomination.
RESULTS: Well, Moneyball and War Horse seemed to have been that beloved. With Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Stephen Daldry continues his streak of having all the films he has directed get the Best Picture nomination. I was wrong about Drive, also shut out of Best Supporting Actor, and Harry Potter. Predicted 6/9.
BEST ACTOR: The two shoo-ins are George Clooney for the Descendants, and Jean Dujardin from the Artist. Brad Pitt‘s popular and seems to have played against type in Moneyball, so I think he’ll get nominated for that. Michael Fassbender gave an acclaimed performance in Shame, and seems to have been campaigning for it heavily enough. And Gary Oldman got a lot of great reviews for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, so he gets in thanks to the horrible reviews for J Edgar.
RESULTS: I had no idea who Demian Bichir was, and I hadn’t even heard of A Better Life. I guess I should have paid more attention to the SAG nominations. Predicted 4/5.
BEST ACTRESS: The shoo-ins are Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs, Viola Davis for the Help, Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady and Michelle Williams for My Week With Marilyn. Tilda Swinton rounds out the list for We Need to Talk About Kevin, as I’ve heard a lot about that performance.
RESULTS: Bit surprised about Mara’s nomination, although it is quite a transformation. Predicted 4/5.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christopher Plummer is the shoo-in for Beginners. Given the Academy’s love of actors playing movie stars, I suspect Kenneth Branagh gets a nomination for playing Lawrence Olivier in My Week With Marilyn. I’ve heard great things about Albert Brooks, going against type as a villain in Drive. Ben Kingsley has a shitload of nominations, and he’s in one of the three films most likely to get Best Picture, so I think he’ll get another nomination for Hugo. And John Hawkes seemed really impressive in trailers for Martha Marcy May Marlene, so I think he’ll get a second consecutive nomination.
RESULTS: My worst category. From the reviews, I expected Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close to be shut out. Warrior didn’t get much attention, so Nolte’s nomination is a bit unexpected. I may have made a mistake in not seeing Moneyball, though Hill’s nomination is l gotten several nominations for the film. Predicted 2/5.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Berenice Bejo is a shoo-in for The Artist. Octavia Spencer won a Golden Globe for The Help, so she’s probably nominated. Jessica Chastain is one of the break-outs of the year, so she’ll likely also be nominated for The Help. Vanessa Redgrave‘s acclaimed in Coriolanus, and it’s about a vicious maternal figure. And a meaty role in the Descendants allows Shailene Woodley to be nominated for an Oscar before Scarlett Johanson or Rachel McAdams.
RESULTS: There was a lot of buzz about McCarthey and McTeer. Woodley joins Scarlett Johanson in not getting a nomination for an acclaimed performance at nineteen. Predicted 3/5.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Woody Allen and Michel Hazanavicius are the shoo-ins. Diablo Cody‘s Young Adult seems to be the type of project that’s more likely to be nominated in the edgier screenwriting category than anything else. Will Reiser got good reviews for the movie he wrote after overcoming cancer, so he’ll probably get a nomination for 50/50. Kirstin Wiig and Annie Mumolo will probably get nominated for Bridesmaids, given the good reviews and Wiig’s higher profile, relative to most screen-writers.
RESULTS: I was wrong about Reiser and Cody. I’ve heard great things about A Seperation, but its scripting nomination is unexpected, though pretty cool. Margin Call was a bit of surprise, as the reception was positive but not all that impressive. Predicted 3/5.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The shoo-ins are John Logan for Hugo, along with Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne and Jim Rash for The Descendants. The scripts seemed to be witty and highly promoted, so I suspect George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Beau Willimon will be nominated for Ides of March. while Stan Chervin, Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian will be nominated for Moneyball. Steven Zaillian will also be nominated for Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, an edgy (the buzzword for films that get screenplay nominations and nothing else) and well-received remake of an acclaimed foreign film.
RESULTS: The Q & A podcast interview with Tinker Tailor writer reveals why the film would be so appealing in one of the categories that traditionally has the quirkiest voters. Predicted 4/5.